By Sandra McLean | July 22, 2025

TORONTO, July 22, 2025 – Earth Overshoot Day (July 24) is more than a week early this year resulting from humanity’s growing ecological footprint amid trade wars and tariffs, which play a potential role in the ecological footprint of Canada and many others, says Eric Miller, director of the Ecological Footprint Initiative in York University’s Faculty of Environmental and Urban Change.

Trade can enable – and mask – the extent to which countries depend upon others for food and natural resources, says Miller, who is available to speak with media about Earth Overshoot Day and what it means for Ontario and the rest of Canada, and the world.

Researchers at York University and the University of Iceland measured the “biocapacity” of all countries’ lands and waters, and how much of it was traded to support the ecological footprint of people in other countries. For example, Canadian forests, more than some 350 times the City of Toronto, were used to support the net imports of softwood lumber by the United States in recent years.

Trade patterns have changed over the years with some countries, such as Canada, exporting far more than they consume or in the case of Italy, importing more than they export, and these patterns could be changing further in this country as interprovincial trading ramps up.

The effect on each country’s ecological footprint can be seen in the most recent data from York University’s Ecological Footprint Initiative, including estimates for how well Canada fares. Canada uses a significantly larger ecological footprint for production than consumption.

“Humanity is using more resources than the Earth can regenerate in a year, and it has been doing so for the last half a century,” says Miller. “The amount we produce, consume and trade continues to increase as we use more resources.”

Close to one third of what the world produces today is not consumed domestically, but instead exported elsewhere, more than double what it was in 1961. Since this time, this amount has grown with only temporary small decreases following world financial crises and the pandemic.

Miller leads a team of researchers and graduate students to produce the National Footprint Accounts for the Footprint Data Foundation, a Canadian not-for-profit organization.

The latest dataset tracks ecological footprint and biocapacity at national and global levels, as well as individually, for 244 countries and territories on a national and trade basis, from 1961 to 2024. It also breaks it down by component, measuring production, imports and exports – trade – and consumption (imports minus exports).

There is a reliable timeline of data for 191 of those countries that allows researchers to see trends over time.

“Using this data allows us to generate the footprint for the national accounts but they also allow us to analyse trends in production and also trade, which has been in the news a lot lately,” says Kiona Lo, senior data analyst, International Ecological Footprint Learning Lab (IEFLL).

Ecological Footprint is the area of land and water people use to grow food and harvest renewable materials to sustain them, in addition to the area occupied by settlements and infrastructure and the area of forests needed to sequester human-generated carbon emissions. Biocapacity is a measure of the ecological potential of an area and includes fishing grounds, built-up land, such as buildings, houses, roads and other infrastructure, cropland, grazing land, and forest biocapacity (the forests’ capacity to supply forest products or to absorb carbon).

“Looking ahead 25 years, the year 2050 is significant as that’s when most of the countries in the world have committed to reaching net zero emissions. To achieve net zero emissions, and end overshoot, each country will need to have its ecological footprint within its biocapacity. That means by 2050 the amount of carbon emissions produced by burning fossil fuels, for example, should be no greater that what can be sequestered by the lands and waters of the planet,” says Miller.

Although the data shows consumption has slowed worldwide, it has still reached the highest ecological footprint since data keeping began.

“It raises the question of what level of reduction in ecological footprint is needed to achieve that worldwide. It’s a 2.1 per cent annual reduction in the world’s ecological footprint for the next 25 years. If we don’t change the current trajectory, it will be a significant challenge to reach the net zero emissions goal.”

Currently, the biocapacity of almost 1.8 Earths would be needed to sustain humanity’s ecological footprint.

York University is a modern, multi-campus, urban university located in Toronto, Ontario. Backed by a diverse group of students, faculty, staff, alumni and partners, we bring a uniquely global perspective to help solve societal challenges, drive positive change, and prepare our students for success. York’s fully bilingual Glendon Campus is home to Southern Ontario’s Centre of Excellence for French Language and Bilingual Postsecondary Education. York’s campuses in Costa Rica and India offer students exceptional transnational learning opportunities and innovative programs. Together, we can make things right for our communities, our planet, and our future.

Media Contact:  Sandra McLean, York University Media Relations, 416-272-6317, sandramc@yorku.ca